NBA picks, betting trends: DraftKings sports betting odds, best basketball bets, predictions for Feb. 5
Saturday’s main slate features five games and begins at 7 p.m. ET with the final two games at 10 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the slate and choose the best bets for Saturday night.
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The Suns are complete and the Wizards will be without their star player Bradley Beal (wrist). There’s no question the best team in the NBA (41-10, 19-5 away) should beat a non-playoff team (24-27, 13-12 home), but can the Suns cover? this big gap on the road? The Suns have won nine of their last 10 games and covered seven of those games. In five of those covers, they were six-point or more favorites and each was away games.
This game is pretty unbalanced. The Suns have the second-best net rating (+7.6), while the Wizards are in 23rd place (-2.5) and that’s in 40 games under Bradley Beal. Obviously, the Suns are great offensively (third) and defensively (second), but they’re also playing at the sixth fastest pace in the NBA. Most teams cannot compete with an efficient and fast team. The Wizards rank 21st in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency. With those numbers, not only will they definitely lose on Saturday night, but they’ll struggle to keep this game close.
Hornets +3.5 (-110)
The Heat have struggled with injuries all season, but Erik Spoelstra is doing his team a disservice by knocking Jimmy Butler to the ground. Over the past week Butler has played 37, 52 and 40 minutes. He had a day off after the 52-minute triple OT affair and luckily the Heat blew up Spurs on Thursday night, allowing Butler to rest (25 minutes). It looks like the Heat are intent on winning every game of the regular season regardless of the long-term effects, so Butler will likely dress and play at least 30 minutes in a pace game against the Hornets. However, at some point, it will catch up with the 32-year-old Heat veteran.
On paper, this seems like a good place for the Heat, but the Hornets are better in real life. On the season, the Hornets rank 25th in defensive efficiency (112.3), but over the last 15 games, they rank seventh (108.3). As dogs of 3.5 or more points, the Hornets have covered eight of their last nine games and 11 of 14 since early November. They are 3-0 ATS as 3.5 or more point underdogs at home and are 9-2 as home dogs this season (7-4 on the line). money).
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Thunder +7 (-110)
Say what you want about the Thunder, but this team covers. Not only do they cover, but they win. Since the Thunder lost Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they’ve won every game without him (three in a row). They will be without their supposed best player for an extended period. Perhaps their best player is Josh Giddey and the presence of Gilgeous-Alexander was holding back the rapid development of the Australian rookie point guard. Although Giddey’s usage rate hasn’t changed much over the last three games, he’s been a much more effective player in each of the last three games. His Over/Under stats over that span were +15, +16, and -2 (a double-double in the first two games and nearly a triple-double in the second game). Even -2 is a solid number for a point guard who is the team’s main distributor. His net rating this season is -8.2, but during this run it is +14.5. It is clear that when General Giddey has command of the ground, the offense and defense work better.
The DraftKings Sportsbook seems overly concerned about the absence of Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins and Jeremiah Robison-Earl. The former may be overrated and the latter two are marginal NBA players according to ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Lu Dort continues to improve as a two-way player and Tre Mann became the team’s third goalscorer. He played a big part in the blowout win over the Trailblazers on Jan. 31 (29 points), but even in the rematch where he was icy (4 for 17 FGA), the Thunder still won because Darius Bazley was a solid contributor off the bench. The Thunder are not a good team and they may not win right away, but they are a well-drilled team with a lot of heart that fights through four quarters. That’s why they’re 32-18-1 ATS.
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