Road underdogs continue to crush this season


The NFL continued to be dominated by upheaval in Week 9, which led to another brutal week for the public sports betting community. In this weekly column, I break down some of the NFL’s most interesting recent betting trends as well as relevant trends relating to each upcoming game in the hopes of helping you make better sports betting. As always, don’t treat these betting trends like gospel, but use them to better frame the way you envision the games to come. Let’s dive in.

Interesting trends this season

In Week 9, the Underdogs went 7-6 in a row and 10-4 ATS to give them another week of incredible results. In the last 30 days, the underdogs are 40-30-1 ATS with a 57.1% success rate – it’s no wonder sports betting has been cleaning up lately. The road dogs were particularly profitable to bet as they got 8-2 ATS in week 9 to bring their last 30-day record to 26-16-1 ATS. So far this season, the Underdogs are 78-57-1 ATS with a success rate of 57.8%, and the Road Dogs are 51-31-1 ATS for a rate of 62.2%. This trend has continued throughout the year and should be strongly considered when placing bets as we move into the second half of the season.

Week 10 betting trends to know

* DraftKings Sportsbook odds

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, O / U 46.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

  • The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites
  • Ravens are 9-0 ATS in last 9 games against Dolphins
  • The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games
  • Under is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last 6 road games
  • Over is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 games against a team with a winning record

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5 O / U 51) vs. Washington Football Team

  • The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss
  • Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss
  • Underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams
  • Over is 7-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 games as a favorite
  • Over is 10-2 in Washington’s last 12 games against a team with a winning record

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5, O / U 44.5)

  • The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
  • Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • The road team are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings of these teams
  • Under is 5-1 in Saints’ last 6 games after a direct loss
  • Over is 8-2 in the Titans’ last 10 games in November

Buffalo Bills (-12.5, O / U 47.5) vs. New York Jets

  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against AFC East teams
  • The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog
  • Underdog are 9-3 ATS in these teams’ last 12 meetings.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 games against a losing team
  • Over is 5-0 in the Jets’ last 5 games overall

Cleveland Browns v New England Patriots (-1.5, O / U 45.5)

  • Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
  • Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 games after a straight win of over 14 points
  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in New England
  • Over is 4-0 in the Browns’ last 4 games against a team with a winning record
  • Under is 4-0 in Patriots’ last 4 games in November

Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, O / U 54.5)

  • The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight win
  • Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
  • The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Cowboys
  • Under is 6-0 in the Falcons’ last 6 games of Week 10
  • Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games as favorite

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-10, O / U 47.5)

  • The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a home loss record
  • The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a loss record
  • The Jaguars are 10-1-1 ATS in these teams’ last 12 meetings
  • Under is 8-2 in these teams’ last 10 games at Indianapolis
  • Under is 5-1 in Colts’ last 6 games against AFC South

Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, O / U 42.5)

  • The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
  • The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
  • Under is 5-1 in Lions’ last 6 games overall
  • Under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games following an ATS loss
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, O / U 53)

  • The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning record at home
  • The Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in November
  • Vikings are 4-0 ATS in last 4 games against Chargers
  • Over is 6-0 in the last 6 games on the Viking route
  • Over is 5-1 in Chargers’ last 6 games in November

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos (-3, O / U 44)

  • The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning record at home
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a losing team
  • Under is 14-3 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in November
  • Under is 4-0 in Broncos’ last 4 games following an ATS win
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5, O / U 49)

  • The Seahawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog on the road
  • The Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 total games
  • The home team are 4-0-1 in the last 5 games between these teams
  • Under is 5-0 in the Seahawks’ last 5 games as an underdog
  • Under is 6-0 in the Packers’ last 6 games overall

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O / U 51.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

  • The Chiefs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight win
  • Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog
  • The home team are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings of these teams.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs’ last 4 games overall
  • Over is 10-0-1 in the Raiders’ last 11 games as a home underdog

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, O / U 48.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Rams are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after direct loss
  • The 49ers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games
  • Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings of these teams
  • Under is 4-1 in Rams’ last 5 games in November
  • Under is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record


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