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Futurer, which offers the largest selection of prediction markets available in a single URL, has announced that after extensive testing, it is officially launching its real money markets to forecasters around the world. Real money markets have been added to Futuur’s already existing virtual money markets, with exchanges available in seven cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Tron (TRX), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and the USDC stablecoin.
With the aim of generating more accurate forecasts using the wisdom of the crowd, Futuur offers forecasters the opportunity to bet on the outcome of future events in areas such as politics, sports, science and business. Similar to a stock market, the price is determined by market activity, fluctuating as traders buy and sell positions in the outcome of the event. The result is an always-up-to-date forecast that aggregates information from various points of view and takes into account changes in information over time. Future makes these predictions public and easy to interpret, providing a percentage estimate of the likelihood of each outcome occurring.
The leading range of liquid markets available for betting is facilitated by an Automated Market Maker (AMM), a type of algorithm that replaces the function of an order book in traditional exchanges, and which is increasingly used in the world of DeFi for power of decentralized exchanges like Uniswap. In the case of Futur, the AMM provides ongoing liquidity, allowing forecasters to buy or sell a position immediately, at any time, without the need for a counterparty on the other side of the trade.
Operating since 2017 with play money markets, Futuur has generated crowd-driven predictions for over 44,000 events, with bets coming from over 25,000 forecasters. The average Brier score (a measure used by statisticians to assess the accuracy of probabilistic predictions) across all markets resolved with bets is 0.168, a notable achievement given that the prize for bettors has been social reputation and capacity building, and did not include a financial component until now.
Now, with the ability to bet with crypto and put more ‘skin in the game’, Futuur predicts that its platform will generate even more accurate predictions. According to Founder Tom Bennett, “We are very pleased with the results Futur forecasters have generated by trading our play money markets, and we are incredibly excited about the prospects for our real money markets. We anticipate that an additional financial incentive will lead to even better accuracy and bring us closer to our goal of helping improve decision making by providing more accurate forecasting.
To highlight this, Futuur has created a market on the performance of its own markets, wondering if the virtual or real money markets resolved in 2021 will be more accurate. The current crowd-fed estimate for the real money and play money versions of this market is 71% and 75%, respectively (real money and play money markets operate independently and generate separate forecasts).
In order to offer legal real money betting, the platform has obtained a gaming license from the Department of Justice of Curaçao. This allows the service to offer real money betting in most countries around the world, but it excludes certain jurisdictions including the United States, Australia, Colombia, and the Netherlands. For forecasters in restricted jurisdictions, don’t worry! Play money markets will continue to be available in all countries.