Take the Chicago Bears against the Kansas City Chiefs

Ads that the NFL and sports betting sites use to urge consumers to exercise caution when placing bets must run continuously during the preseason.

“For the most part, betting on these games is pretty degenerate,” said longtime sports bettor Richi Burrell. “The whole strategy of the game is different. It is based on the fact that the players are looking to form a team.

“It’s not based on winning.”

Tipico Sportsbook spokesperson Sunny Gupta estimates that a preseason game in the NFL generates about one-eighth of the bets of a regular season game. Las Vegas SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay says it’s even less — about 1/15th — at his store.

“Very light,” Kornegay said of the bets, “educated players look for certain angles and will play light if they find value.”

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Prior to the benefit of legalized online sports betting, which has spread across the United States over the past calendar year – with New York, Arizona and others reporting strong business – Kornegay said casual bettors previously remained ” on the (golf) course or in the swimming pool”, during the exhibition season.

The new reality of mobile online betting has changed that.

New coaches prove points

Sharp punter Burrell said: “There’s only one pre-season system I bet on, and it’s been very lucrative.”

And it starts immediately with new NFL coaches trying to prove themselves in their first exhibition games.

There are 10 new head coaches this season. Burrell boasted he was “1-0 already”, after backing new Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels in his Hall of Fame game last week against the first-year coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. Jacksonville Jaguars, Doug Pederson.

“I know they’re both new, but I went with McDaniels because he had more to play with. It’s the Raiders on national television, and they were playing in Jacksonville,” Burrell explained. “Come on, I’m taking the Raiders over the Jaguars.”

Burrell’s system, cultivated over the years with bettor friends, is committed to the idea that the first game kicks off the new coach’s PR campaign.

“While veteran coaches don’t really care about results, the new coach is trying to establish his winning path, a winning tradition, and he wants it to start off right,” Burrell said. “So while some coaches are treating these results as irrelevant and not even playing their starters, the new coach wants this win.”

That explains why the New York Giants and new coach Brian Daboll are the -2.5-point favorites in Tipico against Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots on Thursday night in Foxborough, Mass.

New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll talks to wide receiver Kadarius Toney (89) during stretches on the first day of training camp at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center in East Rutherford on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 .

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The former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator is taking over Daniel Jones’ New York experience after earning credit for an innovative play call that helped quarterback Josh Allen succeed.

“Give me the Giants,” Burrell said.

Likewise, Burrell likes the Chicago Bears and new coach Matt Eberflus as -3.5-point favorites on Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs, returning champions from AFC West.

If it was a regular season game, coach Andy Reid’s team would likely be favored by at least two touchdowns.

“But (quarterback Patrick) Mahomes probably won’t even play. They won’t use Travis Kelce. It’s not even the same team,” Burrell said. “I like bears.”

During the same week, Bears linebacker Roquan Smith requested a trade due to his dissatisfaction with dormant contract extension talks, Burrell not blinking.

“Go ahead,” he directed.

He also likes the Minnesota Vikings and new coach Kevin O’Connell — the former offensive coordinator for the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams — as a +3.5 underdog at the Raiders on Sunday.

Nnesota Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell leads players during drills at the NFL Football Team's Training Center in Eagan, Minnesota on May 17, 2022

Games to avoid

Otherwise, Burrell advises bettors to avoid the New Orleans Saints against the Houston Texans on Saturday between two freshman coaches, Dennis Allen and Lovie Smith. The Saints are the -2.5 point favorites at Tipico.

And he doesn’t like the veteran Tampa Bay Buccaneers as +1.5 point underdogs against the visiting Miami Dolphins on Saturday.

New Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles “has been in this program and has nothing to prove,” Burrell said.

Meanwhile, another veteran bettor, Bill Krackomberger of Las Vegas, agreed and discouraged any further preseason pick betting.

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It is essential to read the reports leading up to kick-off to find out which teams will use their most capable players beyond mere cosmetic appearances, Krackomberger said.

Although he made substantial bets on the Green Bay Packers (+2.5 underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers on Friday night) and the Atlanta Falcons (-0.5 point favorites to the Detroit Lions on Friday) on the based on his extensive calculations.

Krackomberger relied on reports that the Falcons will play their starters, and he felt their quarterbacking depth would fuel sharp play from the sport’s most important position. Atlanta offers Marcus Mariota, rookie Desmond Ridder and sophomore Feleipe Franks at center.

Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks Desmond Ridder (4) and Marcus Mariota (1) work out during their NFL minicamp football practice Tuesday, June 14, 2022 in Flowery Branch, Ga. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

His bet on the Falcons at +3 moved the line.

Additionally, with Aaron Rodgers’ replacement Jordan Love set to play heavily this pre-season atop a roster featuring several compelling depth battles, Krackomberger is betting on Green Bay to produce a determined effort against rival NFC despite reports that the 49ers will allow some starters to play deeper into the game.

Finally, he jumped on the +3.5 Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo given the Bills “don’t play their starters.”

Of course, other – perhaps less sophisticated – theories will be in play this week, starting with the most obvious: the NFL is back.

“I can also be a degenerate (player),” Burrell said. “So I might have a few other pieces too, just out of boredom.”

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